Equity and Bond markets way forward Equity and Bond markets way forward India’s nominal growth has slowed meaningfully over the past decade. Almost every major drivercorporate sales, wages, tax revenues, consumption, exports has decelerated. Private capex is still not picking up in a meaningful way, while consumption remains soft due to slower income growth and higher household debt. Exports, especially services, have also lost momentum compared to the strong pre-2013 phase. Market behaviour is also flashing caution. Breadth has weakened sharply, with very few stocks hitting new highs despite the indices being near peak levels. Small and mid caps have started slipping below key trend indicators, while large caps are quietly beginning to lead again. Promoter selling and record IPO fundraising also point towards a late-cycle environment. On the other side, bonds look attractive. With inflation at multi-decade lows and government borrowing stabilising, long-duration G-Secs arou...
Slowly. Then All At Once. US Markets rising before bust? “How did you go bankrupt?” Hemingway once wrote. “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” That rhythm doesn’t just describe personal ruin. It describes how entire markets, economies, even societies unravel. Right now, we’re in the gradually stage. Debt is piling up, valuations are stretched, liquidity is tightening. None of these on their own feels like a breaking point. Life goes on. Markets rally. Optimism prevails. But history teaches us that pressures build invisibly , until a tipping point forces them into the open. Think back to 2008. Subprime mortgages, reckless lending, overleveraged banks , all slow-burn problems. Then Lehman collapsed, and in a matter of weeks the global financial system looked completely different. What felt manageable for years suddenly became existential. We’re seeing similar patterns today. Government debt-to-GDP ratios are at record highs. Small and mid-cap stocks in India are trading at valuat...