Wednesday, 26 December 2018


Swanand Kelkar is Managing Director at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
Markets In 2018: Not A Year For Doubling Down

Simhavalokana is a Sanskrit term to denote the retrospective gaze of a lion. It is said that as the lion traverses some distance in the jungle, he looks back to examine the path he chose and how he covered that distance.
It is that time of the year again when things thankfully begin to slow down. Many times this tumultuous year, I have daydreamed of the serenity that the second half of December brings and wished it would come sooner. From trade wars to crude price volatility to liquidity squeezes, this year was a handful, making investors feel like Kareena Kapoor in Jab We Met* when during a very eventful night she says “Please Babaji ab to hadd paar ho chuki hai, ab iss raat mein koi excitement mat dena, boring bana do ji ab iss raat ko please”. Naturally, a year like 2018 packs in a lot of learning, some timely reminders of old truths and some new perspectives. Here are a few things that I learned.

1. Correlation Between Hard Work And Results
Relentless hard work gets results is something that has been drilled into most of us. Not getting good marks? Study harder. Not losing weight? Sweat it out more in the gym. Sometimes this is where we make the Venn diagram mistake – yes, good results require hard work but there are times when hard work by itself does not guarantee success. During the volatile middle part of the year, I reacted to portfolio under-performance by giving it all that I had, so much so that eating right, working out, time with friends and family fell by the wayside. I need not have.
It was a time when the macro narrative was so dominant that individual stock picking—where most of the hard work gets done—was of little consequence.
As the chart below suggests, the market performance was quite narrow in 2018. Only 18 out of the 51 Nifty stocks outperformed the index. We had a similar scenario in 2013 when macro worries dominated the market and individual stock picking took a backseat.

Simhavalokana 2018: Not A Year For Doubling Down


Within these narrow outperformers, the index heavyweights punched above their weights and the only question that mattered for a relative investor was how much of these names did you own?
Simhavalokana 2018: Not A Year For Doubling Down

More humility and acceptance would have helped but the older brother of ‘Want more marks? Study harder’ is ‘Getting bad marks? How can you be doing nothing about it?’ and that is a very difficult question to stifle.

2. Investing For Yourself And Investing For Others
There is a difference when you are investing for yourself and investing for others. When you are investing for others you can be forced into doing things which you don’t agree with as an investor because that’s how typically fund inflows and outflows happen. In mid-2017, we were writing about the fact that the macro improvement that India saw from 2014 was reversing and market valuations were not factoring it in. However, money kept flowing in all through 2017. Foreign institutional investors net bought $8 billion of Indian equities in 2017. On the other side, during the panic months of September and October 2018 money was leaving the country. With net outflow of $4.6 billion as of Dec. 17, the year is on track to be the worst year for FII flows, barring 2008.

So as an investor managing money for someone else, you were buying through 2017 and selling in later months of 2018.
Managing money for others in that sense is about the ability to hold two sets of nerves – your own and your investors’. 
Simhavalokana 2018: Not A Year For Doubling Down

 3. Does Macro Matter? Yes And No.

In one of our earlier Simhavalokana pieces, we had written that macro does not matter for stock picking. We forgot to put a ‘terms and conditions apply’ asterisk there. The longer your investment horizon, lesser is the relevance of macros.
If you are like Warren Buffett—who is happy to hold on to stocks even if the market shuts down for ten years—then you need not pay any attention to the macro. If you stand in front of an investment committee every quarter, you better be paying heed to it.
This holds true for politics too. If your investment horizon is, say, the month of May 2019, a single event is going to matter for your performance. If your horizon is January 2019 to January 2029, you can afford to totally ignore what happens in May 2019. The chart below shows the Nifty performance from Jan 2004 to December 2013. The period has two general election result days and on both those days, the market was locked on a double-circuit breaker.
However, those violent reactions are but a small wiggle on the ten-year chart. 

Simhavalokana 2018: Not A Year For Doubling Down



4. The Impossible Trinity Of Money Management
While the impossible trinity of macroeconomics is quoted often, I discovered—the hard way—the impossible trinity of money management this year.
Concentrated portfolios, low turnover, and short-term performance measurement are an impossible trinity.
If you run low-churn concentrated portfolios, you have little control on short-term performance. If you want to have control on short-term performance with low churn, you should run a quasi-index diversified portfolio, which is passive investing. It’s an untested hypothesis, but running concentrated yet high-churn portfolios may give you some control over short-term performance. Choose two, let go of the third

5. How Portfolio Quality Dilution Happens
Most fellow investors I talk to utter the word ‘quality’ in the first two sentences when we chat about investments styles.
So if everybody is so quality-focused, how do low-quality stocks creep into institutional portfolios?
They enter mostly at the tail-end of red-hot rallies like 2017 when yes, you are quality-focused but you are also valuation-focused. The best-in-class stock in the theme that you like is trading at astronomical valuations. You go down the quality curve because you want palatable valuations. The added difficulty is at that time, there is a huge squad of motivated investment bankers and sell-siders cheer-leading the next XYZ (fill in XYZ with your favourite unaffordable stock)

Towards the end of 2007 mania, there was an unending quest for the 'next Larsen & Toubro' and in 2017 I was pitched at least three 'next Bajaj Finances'. The lesson here is simple: always gravitate towards best in class. If it’s unaffordable, wait. Don’t settle for a look-alike.
Genuine quality stocks are like tennis balls, they bounce back. Lookalikes are like eggs, they break.
6. Lessons From Tom and Jerry
Growing up, one of my favorite cartoons was Tom & Jerry and I used to love the hilarious chases that Tom used to routinely undertake. One that drew the most guffaws was when Tom used to keep running in the air after the end of a cliff, and then fall down in a straight line. That happens to markets too.

They can over-extend after the underlying fundamentals have turned, as if running in air. That happened when markets kept rallying hard till January 2018 despite the fact that the macro story had clearly turned downward. This happens on the other side as well when markets and stocks just ignore fundamental improvements and it can be quite frustrating for an investor. But the lesson here: stay with your fundamental convictions. Even Tom could not defy gravity.

7. Volatility And Productivity
Recently I activated the Screen Time feature on my iPhone. It measures the amount of time you spend on your phone and sends you a summary at the end of the day. Without giving you details, let me just say I have been disgusted at the amount of time I have been spending on the phone. I think the Bloomberg Terminal too should have this feature, especially on volatile days.
Things are moving all over the place, the screen is hypnotic and you sit in front of it immobilised or worse, succumbing to negative thought spirals that through one route or the other take you to the impending end of the world. And just like that, it is 3:30 p.m.

Avoid getting sucked in by the spiral by planning your circuit breaker in advance; anything that forces you away from the screen. Personally, I lock away the phone, gather a bunch of piled up reading and relocate to the coffee shop below our office. In a place full of financial services firms, the coffee shop is generally deserted on such volatile days.

8. The Greatest Enemy Of Growth Investing
The greatest enemy of growth investors is de-rating i.e. when markets opt to pay a lower multiple than before for same earnings stream because it views current growth to be unsustainable. If predicting earnings and cash flows is the science of investing, then predicting the multiple that the market will ascribe to it, is the art. It involves understanding the narrative around a stock or sector and what the market collectively feels about its future. At times like these, when disruption is a buzzword, stress-testing the high growth companies in your portfolio for vulnerability from disruption, either real or perceived is important.
A simple question that I ask myself in these situations is, whether the next three years are likely to be higher-growth years or lower-growth years than the last three?
If you get this right, you will most likely get the multiple right.

9. How To Survive Underperformance
In an earlier essay, I wrote about how a fund manager can cope with portfolio underperformance. The key here is to be clear about one’s investment style and state in advance what kind of market environment the portfolio will do well and badly in. We typically express this with the following bell curve chart and there was a lesson here as well. Most of us learn to see the world map in two dimensions. As a kid, it took me a while to understand that you can reach Hawaii quite quickly from New Zealand and you don’t actually have to fly westwards all the way back.
As an investor, it took me a while to understand that you can get to ‘batten down the hatches’ quite quickly from ‘off to the races’
Simhavalokana 2018: Not A Year For Doubling Down

10. ‘Comfort Zone’ Is Not Always A Bad Thing
In an all-pervasive performance culture that extends from sports to the corporate world, ‘comfort zone’ has become a bad word. It has become something that has to be avoided at all costs if you don’t want to fall behind in life.
But in a trying year like 2018, it’s extremely important to have cultivated a comfort zone.
A place or a routine that gives you a sense of calmness, helps you put things in perspective and rise above the pushes and pulls of daily life to see the bigger picture. It’s a place you come to recharge your batteries and be a bit easy on yourself. There is a small temple close to where I grew up, that thankfully hasn’t made it to ‘Top 10 places in Mumbai if you are seeking divine intervention’. On days, which aren’t the favourite of the presiding deity, it is quite empty. It’s on such days, sitting cross-legged in the cool inner sanctum, that I have been able to quieten the mind. Once in a while, I have also remembered to fold my hands and pay obeisance.

Friday, 3 August 2018

Golden Triangle of Finance !! An Idea !!





We all appreciate the hard work put in by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. I am blessed to be followed by him.and appreciate he acknowledges my advice always 

I always try and speak with people on ground and judge the mood. Also as a Finance professional I can understand the brilliant economic steps well balanced by control of fiscal deficit.

I understand that in current budget Mr Arun Jaitley had to walk on tight rope of deficit and tax exemptions.Now the high crude prices and MSP is also another worry and may work against government goal of fiscal prudence 

Although GST collections on monthly basis is around 96000 crores, government shall need around 1.03 lac crores in next 8 months to keep fiscal deficit under check 

The collections may experience some setback with revision in rates.  It is not easy to change the mindset of many who spend on luxury items from dealers and do not go for invoice to save GST. 

I understand that the government is doing needful checks and bringing guilty to books, however it is difficult to check every shop and buyer 

It is also being proposed to give GST a boost by refunding the tax on digital payments. However the same is limited to Rs 100. For those who are splurging on luxury items will not bother for Rs 100 refund 

A small suggestion with which we can reap  triple benefits of huge revenue to government,Relief to middle class coupled with huge boost to consumption. I shall call it Golden Triangle of Finance.


" Splurge in luxury of branded clothes, watches, mobiles, laptop, travelling................... AND get Tax Relief of Rs 1 lac from income tax "


The caveat : Has to be for end user, digital payment and not for those claiming GST input credit.

This will change the entire mood of nation with huge boost to economy as well as GST revenues

Check rough calculations for the same 





The above proposal can be adjusted as per various financial brains in MOF. This is just an out of box suggestion after the ground feedback

Let us all work together to make India Golden Bird again 

Saturday, 10 February 2018

Marriage a relationship of freedom








Last evening as I finished my workout saw a message on my mobile “ Please don’t message anything as I am on leave and my wife might see them”

The message was from one of my investors whom I send all Market updates or sometimes light jokes. He is one of the many in my group of investors. Surprised by the message I called him and asked what was it all about ? He replied” Look my wife doesn’t like any sort of messages from any woman and I want peace in life”.

Going by his reply I removed him from the group and started driving back home. Many thoughts started to cross my mind. “ Is he a caged parrot? Why is his wife so insecure? Does marriage means you lose your own identity? You only are a husband or a wife ?”

Later at night going into my past I realised “ oh even I was same. How my hubby would have coped up with me all those years?” Yes years back I would want the details of all he did throughout the day. Whom did he meet? Where did he go? Checking his mobile always for if he is texting some woman

Not realising that in this entire process I was killing my identity too. My life was always revolving around his activities. Unnecessary suspicions and in process killing my own confidence. My life had become hell with imaginary thoughts and I was passing on same vibrations to him. Was to an extent that if he compliments a woman, unknowingly I shall start hating her

But then God was kind to me. I met a very beautiful soul. She over a period of months changed my entire thinking. She said “ Marriage is all about standing with each other at time of happiness or crises. It isn’t about to own a person or remote control your partner”

Isn’t that true? Why we woman want entire freedom for ourselves but keep a tab on our spouse for every breath he takes?  If some man will compliment me I will feel he is a Gentleman but if my hubby will do the same he is a flirt

I am a 360 degree change person now. No more frantic calling to check on him. He goes out on his own adventure trips with his gang. No mobile checking. ...... absolutely nothing. But this change should come from inside. Not that I do all this but emotionally breaking inside. It is difficult to do it but when one goes through the process and comes out free soul life becomes very beautiful

The problem somewhere lies in society. We are told possessiveness goes hand in hand with love. If you marry someone then you only belong to that person. We so easily fall in the trap of controlling the other person in name of care & love

Love & Marriage isn’t about keeping the partner in a locker. It is all about understanding each other’s emotions. It is impossible for any human to not to love or think of another person throughout his or her married life. And what is wrong in that? There can be temporary attractions. The same can culminate into short term affair. But trust me as long as Marriage is Happy and strong these events pass away

There are chemical reactions which might lead a person to get attracted to someone else. But the faster they happen, even more faster they die down.

I had two choices. One to be a typical wife nagging and checking on my hubby. Other to just let him enjoy his life. Trust me Second one was game changer for our relationship. As we both started to enjoy  with our own group of friends we came more close to each other. Yes there would be periods when he or me might end up in a short flick with someone else. But how does that matter Coz our relationship has become too strong to be broken. We are best friends to each other

Now you might feel “ what if your spouse finds someone else, with freedom he enjoys and walk our?” My simple answer is can you stop anyone, even if you keep thousands control. If he really loves you he won’t irrespevtive of any attractions. I have seen partners walking out of marriage in most controlled relationships too.

Let your partner enjoy life. In me & my hubby language “ शादी तो की है कोई फाँसी थोड़ी लगाई है”
Love is all about enjoying your partner happiness. But that doesn’t mean that the happiness should only be from you. It can be anyone. Enjoy his freedom. Enjoy his happiness. Let him live his life so that you can live yours too. And then experience the true life of togetherness

I know many will not agree with my views and might call me ..... any names. But this is my experience and I just wanted to share
Do give it a thought.



On a lighter note , Make your wife read it 

Thursday, 21 September 2017

Why Mr Narendra Modi our life line. Forget economics

 Blog courtesy Geert Wilders

This blog specially dedicated to leaders like Mamta Banerjee and Human Rights fake organisations

You must be having lot of complaints against Mr Narendra Modi( Although long term you will realise how good these changes are) you cannot deny what will happen to India if we have Rahul or Arvind Kejriwal in majority. We will be another Islamic state

WHAT IS TRUE FOR EUROPE IS VERY MUCH SO FOR INDIA, and the other way around too, as EU was made to be like the INDian Union, and they are 2 generations behind us but interestingly they are on par with us their current experiences of what home grown & imported ‘’Semitic – monotheistic – fundamentalist – absolutist – ideology -monochrome – dogmatic – religious & religions’’ do over a period.

In a generation or two, the US will ask itself: "Who lost Europe?" Here is the speech of Geert Wilders, Chairman, Party for Freedom the Netherlands, at the Four Seasons in New York, introducing an Alliance of Patriots and announcing the Facing Jihad Conference in Jerusalem ..


You have seen the landmarks. But in these cities, sometimes a few blocks away from your tourist destination, there is another world. It is the world of the parallel society created by Muslim mass-migration.

All throughout Europe a new reality is rising: entire Muslim neighbourhoods where very few indigenous people reside or are even seen. And if they are, they might regret it. This goes for the police as well. It is the world of head scarves, where women walk around in figureless tents, with baby strollers and a group of children. Their husbands, or slaveholders if you prefer, walk three steps ahead. With mosques on many street corners. The shops have signs you and I cannot read. You will be hard-pressed to find any economic activity. These are Muslim ghettos controlled by religious


Dear friends,
Thank you very much for inviting me.

I come to America with a mission. All is not well in the old world. There is a tremendous danger looming, and it is very difficult to be optimistic. We might be in the final stages of the Islamization of Europe. This not only is a clear and present danger to the future of Europe itself, it is a threat to America and the sheer survival of the West. The United States as the last bastion of Western civilization, facing an Islamic Europe.

First, I will describe the situation on the ground in Europe. Then, I will say a few things about Islam. To close I will tell you about a meeting in Jerusalem.

The Europe you know is changing.

You have seen the landmarks. But in these cities, sometimes a few blocks away from your tourist destination, there is another world. It is the world of the parallel society created by Muslim mass-migration.

All throughout Europe a new reality is rising: entire Muslim neighbourhoods where very few indigenous people reside or are even seen. And if they are, they might regret it. This goes for the police as well. It is the world of head scarves, where women walk around in figureless tents, with baby strollers and a group of children. Their husbands, or slaveholders if you prefer, walk three steps ahead. With mosques on many street corners. The shops have signs you and I cannot read. You will be hard-pressed to find any economic activity. These are Muslim ghettos controlled by religious fanatics. These are Muslim neighbourhoods, and they are mushrooming in every city across Europe. These are the building-blocks for territorial control of increasingly larger portions of Europe, street by street, neighbourhood by neighbourhood, city by city.

There are now thousands of mosques throughout Europe. With larger congregations than there are in churches. And in every European city there are plans to build super-mosques that will dwarf every church in the region. The signal is: we rule.

Many European cities are already one-quarter Muslim: just take Amsterdam, Marseille, and Malmo in Sweden. In many cities, the majority of the under-18 population is Muslim. A ring of Muslim neighbourhoods now surrounds Paris. Mohammed is the most popular name among boys in many cities.

In some elementary schools in Amsterdam the farm can no longer be mentioned, because that would also mean mentioning the pig, and that would be an insult to Muslims.

Many state schools in Belgium and Denmark only serve halal food to all pupils. In once-tolerant Amsterdam gays are beaten up exclusively by Muslims. Non-Muslim women routinely hear 'whore, whore'. Satellite dishes are not pointed to local TV stations, but to stations in the country of origin.

In France school teachers are advised to avoid authors deemed offensive to Muslims, including Voltaire and Diderot; the same is increasingly true of Darwin The history of the Holocaust can no longer be taught because of Muslim sensitivity.

In England sharia courts are now officially part of the British legal system. Many neighbourhoods in France are no-go areas for women without head scarves. Last week a man almost died after being beaten up by Muslims in Brussels, because he was drinking during the Ramadan.

Jews are fleeing France in record numbers, on the run for the worst wave of anti-Semitism since World War II. French is now commonly spoken on the streets of Tel Aviv and Netanya, Israel ... I could go on forever with stories like this. Stories about Islamization.

A total of fifty-four million Muslims now lives. San Diego University recently calculated that a staggering 25 percent of the population in Europe will be Muslim just12 years from now. Bernhard Lewis has predicted a Muslim majority by the end of this century.

Now these are just numbers. And the numbers would not be threatening if the Muslim-immigrants had an ardent desire to assimilate. But there are few signs of that. The Pew Research Center reported that half of French Muslims see their loyalty to Islam as greater than their loyalty to France ... One-third of French Muslims do not object to suicide attacks. The British Centre for Social Cohesion reported that one-third of British Muslim students are in favour of a worldwide caliphate. Muslims demand what they call 'respect'. And this is how we give them respect. We have Muslim official state holidays.

The Christian-Democratic attorney general is willing to accept sharia in the Netherlands if there is a Muslim majority. We have cabinet members with passports from Morocco and Turkey ...

Muslim demands are supported by unlawful behaviour, ranging from petty crimes and random violence, for example against ambulance workers and bus drivers, to small-scale riots. Paris has seen its uprising in the low-income suburbs, the banlieues. I call the perpetrators 'settlers'. Because that is what they are. They do not come to integrate into our societies; they come to integrate our society into their Dar-al-Islam. Therefore, they are settlers.

Much of this street violence I mentioned is directed exclusively against non-Muslims, forcing many native people to leave their neighbourhoods, their cities, their countries. Moreover, Muslims are now a swing vote not to be ignored.

The second thing you need to know is the importance of Mohammed the prophet. His behaviour is an example to all Muslims and cannot be criticized. Now, if Mohammed had been a man of peace, let us say like MK Ghandi and Mother Theresa wrapped in one, there would be no problem. But Mohammed was a warlord, a mass murderer, a paedophile, and had several marriages - at the same time. Islamic tradition tells us how he fought in battles, how he had his enemies murdered and even had prisoners of war executed. Mohammed himself slaughtered the Jewish tribe of Banu Qurayza. If it is good for Islam, it is good. If it is bad for Islam, it is bad.

Let no one fool you about Islam being a religion. Sure, it has a god, and a here-after, and 72 virgins. But in its essence Islam is a political ideology. It is a system that lays down detailed rules for society and the life of every person. Islam wants to dictate every aspect of life. Islam means 'submission'. Islam is not compatible with freedom and democracy, because what it strives for is sharia. If you want to compare Islam to anything, compare it to communism or national-socialism, these are all totalitarian ideologies.

Now you know why the British Intelligentsia called Islam 'the most retrograde force in the world', and why he compared Mein Kampf to the Quran. The public has wholeheartedly accepted the Palestinian narrative, and sees Israel as the aggressor. I have lived in this country and visited it dozens of times. I support Israel. 

First, because it is the Jewish homeland after two thousand years of exile up to and including Auschwitz; second because it is a democracy, and third because Israel is our first line of defense.

This tiny country is situated on the fault line of jihad, frustrating Islam's territorial advance. Israel is facing the front lines of jihad, like Kashmir, Kosovo, the Philippines, Southern Thailand, Darfur in Sudan, Lebanon, and Aceh in Indonesia .. Israel is simply in the way. The same way West-Berlin was during the Cold War.

The war against Israel is not a war against Israel. It is a war against the West. It is jihad. Israel is simply receiving the blows that are meant for all of us. If there would have been no Israel, Islamic imperialism would have found other venues to release its energy and its desire for conquest. Thanks to Israeli parents who send their children to the army and lay awake at night, parents in Europe and America can sleep well and dream, unaware of the dangers looming.

Many in Europe argue in favour of abandoning Israel in order to address the grievances of our Muslim minorities. But if Israel were, God forbid, to go down, it would not bring any solace to the West It would not mean our Muslim minorities would suddenly change their behaviour, and accept our values. 

On the contrary, the end of Israel would give enormous encouragement to the forces of Islam. They would, and rightly so, see the demise of Israel as proof that the West is weak, and doomed. The end of Israel would not mean the end of our problems with Islam, but only the beginning. It would mean the start of the ultimate battle for world domination.

 If they can get Israel, they can get everything. So-called journalists volunteer to label all critics of Islamization as a 'right-wing extremists' or 'racists'. In my country, the Netherlands, 60 percent of the population now sees the mass immigration of Muslims as the number one policy mistake since World War II. And another 60 percent sees Islam as the biggest threat. 

Yet there is a greater danger than terrorist attacks, the scenario of America as the last man standing. The lights may go out in Europe faster than you can imagine. An Islamic Europe means a Europe without freedom and democracy, an economic wasteland, an intellectual nightmare, and a loss of military might for America - as its allies will turn into enemies, enemies with atomic bombs. With an Islamic Europe, it would be up to America alone to preserve the heritage of Rome, Athens, and Jerusalem ....

Dear friends, liberty is the most precious of gifts. My generation never had to fight for this freedom, it was offered to us on a silver platter, by people who fought for it with their lives. 

All throughout Europe, American cemeteries remind us of the young boys who never made it home, and whose memory we cherish. My generation does not own this freedom; we are merely its custodians. We can only hand over this hard-won liberty to Europe 's children in the same state in which it was offered to us.

 We cannot strike a deal with mullahs and imams. Future generations would never forgive us. We cannot squander our liberties. We simply do not have the right to do so.


We have to take the necessary action now to stop this Islamic/Semitic stupidity from destroying the free world that we know.


Saturday, 2 September 2017

India the golden sparrow again

THE STORY OF THE SPARROW by Raymond Federman


On a beautiful winter day in Siberia, encouraged by the warm rays of the sun in a clear blue sky, a little sparrow left the security of his nest to fly and frolic in the air, but the 40 below zero temperature quickly overcame the imprudent bird who fell to the ground, frozen, and found himself buried in the snow where he would certainly have died in an instant. But by chance a cow trotted by at that moment, and at the very spot where the sparrow was struggling for his last breath, she dropped a large soft cow-dung on top of the bird. The warmth of this dung-bath resuscitated the moribund sparrow. He was so happy, he raised his head out of the cow-shit and started to twitter joyfully, which drew the attention of a wandering homeless cat who delicately pulled the sparrow out of the shit and devoured him.
The moral of this story: 

Your enemy is not necessarily the one who shits on your head.

 Your friend, however, is not necessarily the one who pulls you out of the shit

 And besides, one should never twitter when one is buried in shit.

You will feel why I writing this story? This is blog of demonetisation / reforms and not some motivation session. 

For better understanding replace the following in the above story

sparrow with the general public , the so called aam aadmi, basically people like us

40 below zero degrees temprature with black money,corruption and inflation.

 cow dung with demonetisation, GST, linking of aadhar card with Pan No.

 twittering of sparrow with the whining by all who got shortchanged and caught with their pants down due to demonetisation.

 the homeless cat with the opposition parties and self styled economist who only worried about themselves for political mileage

if you still have problems in understanding the meaning of this story in my blog then obviously this blog is not for you

Decide now  " we want to be a  sparrow saved but ultimately becoming food for the cat or a sparrow flying even higher


Now let us talk Demonetisation 




Post 8th November 2016 India saw birth of many self styled Economist. They had every possible criticism of demonetisation. Across all political parties and Award Wapsi Gang and Libtards reacted as if it is end of country. They tried every possible gimmick to turn common man on street to build narrative against PM but failed miserably 

Lately RBI came out with report that 99% of notes back in system. As if these critics ere waiting for this opportunity they started their best past time" propaganda against Mr Modi and RBI


 Critics of demonetisation make two major arguments against it. One, that it was expensive, ill-timed, unnecessary. Second, that it did not root out black money and the move has failed since all the money has come back. There is one major counter argument to this. 


First let us check these verified figures by PIB 



Quantum jump in Enforcement actions based on Demonetisation data:
Searches 
·         158% increase in number of searches (from 447 to 1152 groups)
·         106% increase in seizures (from Rs. 712 crore to Rs.1469 crore)
·         38% increase in admission of undisclosed income (from Rs.11,226 crore to Rs. 1,54,96 crore)
       Surveys
·         183% increase in surveys (from 4422 to 12520)
·         44% increase in undisclosed income detected (from Rs. 9654 crore to Rs. 13920 crore)

18 lakh suspect cases were identified through use of data analytics where cash transactions did not appear to be in line with the tax profile of depositors.
 The exercise has also unearthed large number of persons and clusters having suspect transactions.

14,000 properties of more than Rs.1 crore each where persons have not even filed Income Tax Returns.  The investigations are in progress.

The number of e-returns of Individual taxpayers filed till 5th August, 2017  increased to 2.79 crore from 2.22 crore returns filed during the corresponding period of last year, 

This is registering an increase of about 57 lakh returns (25.3%). 

  The total number of all returns (electronic + paper) filed during the entire Financial Year 2016-17 was 5.43 crore which is 17.3% more than the returns filed during FY 2015-16.
·         

Collection of Advance Tax under Personal Income Tax (i.e. other than Corporate Tax) as on 05.08.2017 showed a growth of about 41.79% over the corresponding period in F.Y

 Collection of Self-Assessment Tax under Personal Income Tax showed a growth of 34.25% over the corresponding period in F.Y. 2016-2017.


Fifty-six lakh new individual tax payers, a 34 per cent jump in self-assessment tax by individuals give some hope on tax compliance.

 Inflows into mutual funds of Rs 1.7 lakh crore between November and June this year compared with Rs 9,160 crore is a glimpse on financialisation. 


The 350 crore transactions in debit and credit cards valued at Rs 6.6 lakh crore last fiscal was higher than the Rs 4 lakh crore a year ago is a sign of what's happening on digitisation. 

These are figures you must have read.but surprisingly no one discussing



Anil Bokil of Pune-based Artha Kranti Pratisthan, an early votary of demonetisation, has defended the benefits of the move. Bokil told that there was a huge ‘cash bubble’ and if demonetisaiton had not happened, India would have been hit like the 2008 subprime crisis in US. 


 Now let  us understand what has demonetisation done to money hoarders

Night of November 8th proved that Mr Modi under estimated the brains of Indians so well fed by corruption. This is gift of Congress to India. Exchange of notes at rate as high as 40%, gold selling at 75k per 10 gms and real estate deals.

Yes due to few corrupt bank officers demonetisation took a jolt. The black money just changed hands. 

Now let us see what happened then. HNI and others sitting on exchanged notes had a sigh of relief. 

" OK we lost 40% of our wealth but we still have 60% intact new notes"

Now the situation is they are having sleepless nights. why?

They cannot use this currency to buy any luxury item as the report goes to government

They cannot afford to take international travel. Every travel is being monitored on amount paid on tickets and currency exchange

Real estate is in bad state. And RERA and NITI AAYOG decision to reduce stamp duty further dim their chance of investing in real estate

Gold norms in place. Poor guys who bought gold at such high price are already 50% down and that is also like nothing. The moment they go out to sell they being monitored

All transactions of converting black to white are under scanner. May it be through purchase of shares or routing through shell companies. Already 3 lac shell companies under scanner

To cut it short the money with them is only for shopping in a mall. Interestingly there also government gains as GST which cannot be claimed back by them as it is unaccounted money. That is huge if you see in long term

I know it is foolish to underestimate corruption in India  There would still be crooks who find ways to evade tax and generate black money. There is a huge army of people who thrive on advising people how to escape tax - consultants and auditors. India has a penal code, but that hasn't stopped rapes and killings. So, will it be with financial laws. 

But do not make mistake of underestimating Mr Narendra Modi. He has resolved to catch hold of black money and he will do so.



I still remember my meeting a banker from London who said

" UK needs demonetisation . Wish we had leader like Mr Modi'

And we have likes of Mr P Chidambaram whose government is world famous for corruption but still has guts to point finger at Mr Modi. I dare him. " EVEN IF 99% MONEY RETURNED TO SYSTEM THAT ITSELF WILL MAKE ECONOMY MOVE. AT LEAST THE MONEY IS NOT IN LOCKERS'

Demonetisation and GST are game changers for our economy which was on ventilator in 2014 when Mr Modi took oath as PM.

Just have patience and you will soon realise the upsurge in GDP and tax base in coming quarters